Lombardy Faces Sharp Birth Decline Threatening Daycare and School Closures by 2036

Lombardy faces a significant decline in birth rates, with 64,711 children born in 2024—the lowest in 25 years and a 34.5% drop from the 2009 peak of 98,792, according to ISTAT data. This trend, also highlighted by Assonidi’s Center for Studies, is reducing demand for early childhood services and straining the regional education network.

If the decline persists, up to 40% of preschools and half of the primary schools could close or become oversized by 2036, with some provinces like Pavia already experiencing very low birth rates (6 per thousand). Assonidi Confcommercio has called on national and regional authorities to implement policies supporting birth rates, parenthood, and the sustainability of educational services.
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